Estimating attendance...

[evileve23]

I am in the process of preparing a business plan for a new after hours nightclub and am curious your suggestions as far as estimating attendance. There is another after hours club already doing business in the city and using their numbers as an estimate would show my prospects to be profitable. However, having frequented this club for many years and having consulted with many of the patrons, the consensus is that most of the club's clients are dissatisfied (hence my business plan). So my question is, if they are receiving x number of patrons per weekend, how would I figure my attendance being that this would be a newer and more appealing club.

[Cheek]

what is your capacity? Try to think of the best case scenario. The worst case would be zero, so somewhere in the middle is the answer ;)

[evileve23]

Im looking for a venue with a minimum of 4000 square feet which would code for just over 400 people, if Im not mistaken. With renovations, bars, etc, looking like the 300-350 range, all depending on exactly what needs to be done to the building. Im not to that point yet, I may need to add bathrooms, utility rooms, who knows. Of course that's 300 people at once, not acounting for turnover, etc. That aside, do you think using the other club's numbers would be the safest bet?
Thanks for the help.

[Cheek]

400 people in a 4,000 sq ft building doesnt sound right. My building is twice that size and my seating capacity is 500. However, with turnover I certainly do more then 500 in a night, it is something to consider. I suggest you contact someone in your city and find out the formula for seating capacity. It will involve size of the building, number of exit doors, number of bathroom stalls, sprinkler system, parking lot size, etc. Probably the local fire department could help you with that.

Because you are new you will have a big draw to your place, probably. That all depends how much word of mouth you can spread and advertising you do. Keeping the customers after the "newness" wears off will depend on your atmosphere and service. Using your competitions numbers isn't a bad idea for a reference, but how do you know what they're doing? Do you do a physical count or do you have someone on the inside?

[evileve23]

I have someone on the inside and the numbers I am giving you are those of the other club's dead season. I figure if my club can make it and a little over on those numbers, I should be good. Like you said, my numbers probably will be better, especially at opening, but I just wanted another opinion. On the capacity tip, it seems strange to me that you can only have 500 people in an 8000 square foot venue...? I was under the impression that the general rule of thumb is 9 square feet per person, but I could be wrong. I will absolutely have the venue capacity checked before I proceed. By your numbers, you are getting 16 square feet per person. Bars and bathrooms must be factored into the footage...?Anyway, like I said, I am not to that point quite yet. I gave the real estate agent a general request on square footage and he was less than helpful. Imagine that, a real estate agent not wanting to help someone open a nightclub!

[David]

Here's the formula that I use when I write a business plan. Granted, these things change slightly from city to city. Check with your local building department. You can use the total area or subtract the areas for the dance floor and other fixed objects like the bar etc. I just cut and pasted the info below for a building that is 16728 square feet total. It's a two story building so each floor is about 8364 square feet.

* Occupancy load
one person for every fifteen square feet.

Bathroom requirements
one water closet for every forty people.

Here's the break down:

16728 sq. ft. / 15 sq. ft. = 1115 people. 1115 / 40 = 28 toilets.

One parking space for every 100 sq. ft of gross building space.

400 sq. ft. per parking space.

Building 82’x102’ = 8364 sq. ft. per floor x 2 = 16728 sq. ft.

16728 sq. ft. / 100 = 168 spaces.

168 x 400 sq. ft. =67200 sq. ft. for parking + 8364 sq. ft., building footprint = 75564 sq. ft.

Lot size 2 acres (43560 sq. ft. per acre) = 87120 sq. ft.

87120 sq.ft. – 75564 sq. ft. = 11556 sq.ft.

87120 x 10% for landscaping = 8712 sq. ft.

Building 75564 sq. ft. + Landscaping 10% 8712 sq.ft. = 84276 sq.ft. needed for the total project.

87120 – 84276 = 2844 sq. ft .balance left over for the patio area.

I hope that this helps and that you understand what I'm trying to tell you. If not, post the questions.

Your project should have an occupancy load of about 267 total max. This is not to say that at it's peak, you will have 300 or so. We all fudge a little on our occupancy load once in a while. Ok Ok all of the time as long as we don't get caught.

[evileve23]

David, thank-you very much for your input. What I intended with this thread originally, was to find out not my capacity, but how I could figure my possible attendance. That is not to say that these two do not go hand in hand, as I know I am not escaping the dreaded coding arithmetic. However, say Club X is getting 200 people on a night but we know that there is a larger demographic that could be appealed to with the "right" club, how would I calculate the new club's expected attendance...? I know all the standards for demographics; breaking down county population by age, gender, et cetera, all the factors included in the standard plan, but that really isnt good enough for me. Short of going door-to-door polling or hiring an expensive market research company, what are the options? How do you know how many people have removed themselves from the club "scene" not because of lack of interest, but simply because they are unhappy with the local state of affairs? I am not nightclub-happy and wish to have numbers as exact as possible.
Thanks again for the information, it will serve as a good guide. I know tho that I will have to go over all this for local code. Why can't they just make this stuff universal? ;)

[David]

The numbers that you are looking for are not easily obtained. There are too many variables that can effect the total count. Take for example, if you usually get 300 to 400 patrons on a Friday night and there's a concert in town that targets the same demo that you do, you count can vary drastically. Or, when you are the new kid on the block and you are going gang busters for the first three or four months then someone else opens a club. Then they become the new guys and the crowd shifts to them.

In this business, there is no exact science. Don't rack your brain trying to apply a logical solution to something that has so many variables. Just take your total occupancy load and times it by 1.5. This should give you a total for each weekend night.